|
Save
25% on our special introductory offer.
Subscribe today for only $14.99 per year.
|
|
|
 |
|
seasonal
forecast
'Very
Active' Season Ahead
Nine hurricanes expected, but fewer will make landfall.
2006
Storm Names |
During the 2005 storm season more
than 21 named tropical cyclones occurred in the Atlantic basin requiring
these additional storms to take names from the Greek alphabet: Alpha,
Beta, Gamma, Delta, and so on.
If a storm forms in the off-season, it will take the next name on
the list based on the current calendar date. For example, if a tropical
cyclone formed in December, it would take the name from the previous
season’s list of names. If a storm formed in February, it would
be named from the subsequent season’s list of names. |
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon |
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine |
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William |
The United States faces another very active Atlantic basin hurricane season
in 2006, but likely with fewer landfalling intense hurricanes than in 2005,
which stands as the costliest, most destructive hurricane season ever, according
to a report by Philip Klotzbach, William Gray and the Colorado State University
(CSU) forecast team.
The team’s first extended-range forecast for the 2006 hurricane season,
issued in December 2005, anticipates 17 named storms forming in the Atlantic
basin between June 1 and November 30. Nine of the 17 storms are predicted
to become hurricanes, and of those nine, five are expected to develop into
intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson Category 3, 4, 5) with sustained
winds of 111 mph or greater.
RIPE CONDITIONS
“Our analysis of current and projected global atmospheric and oceanic
predictors through November indicates that the 2006 Atlantic basin hurricane
season will be an active one with net tropical cyclone activity about 195
percent of the average season,” Klotzbach said.
By comparison, 2005 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 263
percent of the average season. The 2005 season witnessed 26 named storms,
14 hurricanes and seven intense hurricanes. Long-term averages are 9.6 named
storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.
“Enhanced major hurricane activity is likely to continue in the Atlantic
basin for the next 15 to 20 years, but the probability of seeing another
two consecutive hurricane seasons with as many landfalling hurricanes as
was witnessed in 2004 and 2005 is very low,” Gray said.
The hurricane team’s forecasts are based on the premise that global
oceanic and atmospheric conditions—such as El Niño, sea surface
temperatures and sea level pressure—that preceded active or inactive
hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar
trends in future seasons.
For 2006, Gray and the hurricane forecast team expect continued warm tropical
and north Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, prevalent in most years since
1995, as well as neutral or weak La Niña conditions—a recipe
for greatly enhanced Atlantic basin hurricane activity. These factors are
similar to conditions that occurred during the 1961, 1967, 1996, 1999 and
2003 seasons. The average of these five seasons had well above-average activity,
and Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2006 season will have slightly more activity
than the average of these five years.
| The Good News: Fewer Landfalling Hurricanes Expected |
While the chances of a landfalling hurricane this season are above
average, the number of major hurricanes actually making landfall on
the U.S. coast is expected to be much lower than the last two seasons.
Florida and the Gulf Coast were ravaged by four landfalling hurricanes
in each of the past two years. Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and
Jeanne caused devastating damage in 2004 followed by Dennis, Katrina,
Rita and Wilma in 2005.
“In 2004 and 2005, we saw a rare
combination of a high number of major hurricanes forming and especially
favorable hurricane steering conditions that drove many storms from
the deep tropics across the Caribbean and into Florida and the Gulf
Coast,” Gray said (See HP, Winter 2006, page 16, and Winter
2005, page 20). “It is statistically unlikely that the coming
2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons will have the number of U.S. landfalling
major hurricanes we have seen in the past two years.” |
HIGH LANDFALL PROBABILITY
The CSU hurricane forecast team also predicts an 81 percent chance—much
higher than average probability—that at least one major hurricane
will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2006. The long-term average
probability is 52 percent.
For the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability
of an intense hurricane making landfall is 64 percent (the long-term average
is 31 percent). For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville,
TX, the probability is 47 percent (the long-term average is 30 percent).
“The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast
is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal
areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active a season,”
Klotzbach said. “However, low landfall probability does not ensure
that hurricanes will not come ashore, so coastal residents should always
be prepared.” |
|
 |
|
|
