special report

New at NOAA
New National Weather Service director named; high-powered satellites readied.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has appointed Jack Hayes assistant administrator for weather services and director of the National Weather Service. Hayes will assume his duties on September 2, and take responsibility for the day-to-day management of NOAA’s weather, hydrologic and climate forecast and warning operations.

Hayes rejoins NOAA having served the past 18 months as the director of the world weather watch department at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In that position, he was responsible for the Global Observing System, Global Telecommunications System and Global Data Processing and Forecasting System that provide the foundation for operational weather forecasting and warning services for WMO member countries around the world.

Before joining the WMO, Hayes served in several senior executive positions at NOAA. As the deputy assistant administrator for NOAA Research, he was responsible for the management of research programs. During his tenure as deputy assistant administrator of NOAA’s Ocean Service he acted as the chief operating officer dealing with a multitude of coastal issues including creating the foundation for the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System. As director of the National Weather Service office of science and technology, he was responsible for science and technology programs that supported weather service operations.

"I am very proud to be returning to NOAA," said Hayes. "Weather and climate-sensitive industries accounted for about $4 trillion of the American economy in 2006, and I look forward to working with the talented staff at the National Weather Service, NOAA and our partners to meet the expanding demands for prompt, accurate weather information."

Hayes also possesses extensive executive management experience in the private sector and the military. He was general manager of the $500 million Automated Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) program at Litton PRC from 1998 through 2000. AWIPS is the interactive computer system utilized by all weather service forecasters. From 1970 through 1998, he held a variety of meteorological positions with the U.S. Air Force including command of the Air Force Weather Agency and Air Force Global Weather Center.

Hayes received his master’s and doctorate degrees in meteorology from the U.S. Navy Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA. He is a graduate of Bowling Green State University, with a bachelor’s degree in mathematics.

NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. The data and products provided by the weather service form a national information database and infrastructure that can be used by other government agencies, the private sector, the public and the global community.

NOAA NAMES NEW DIRECTOR AT CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has announced Wayne Higgins as the new director of the Climate Prediction Center based in Camp Springs, MD.

The Climate Prediction Center is one of the National Weather Service’s nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction that provide the United States with first alerts of weather, climate, ocean and space weather events. The Climate Prediction Center assesses and forecasts the impacts of short-term climate variability including enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events for the United States. Forecast products under Higgins’ supervision include the Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook, the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook and U.S. seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks and many others.

Higgins began his career at NOAA in 1994 as a meteorologist in the Climate Prediction Center. He spent many years developing the center’s suite of monitoring and forecast products used for predicting U.S. temperature and precipitation, El Niño and other seasonal climate variations. In 1999 he was selected as the center’s principal scientist where his major role was to improve capabilities to monitor and predict short-term climate variability and weather/climate linkages. In addition, over the past three years Higgins has led NOAA’s efforts to move climate research and development into operations in order to accelerate improvements in climate forecast products and services.

"The Climate Prediction Center has a terrific team of scientific, technical and administrative experts and together, with our partners, we will develop and deliver user demanded climate prediction products and services,” Higgins said.

Higgins received his bachelor’s degree in physics in 1980 from the University of Illinois and his master’s and doctorate degrees in meteorology in 1983 and 1987 from Pennsylvania State University. Prior to coming to NOAA in 1994, Higgins spent seven years as a research meteorologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and one year in the Joint Center for Earth System Science at the University of Maryland.

NEW ADVANCED HURRICANE MODEL AIDS NOAA FORECASTERS

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction and its National Hurricane Center forecasters are using the Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) Model to predict the track and strength of storms this hurricane season.

Developed by scientists at the NOAA Environmental Modeling Center, HWRF is a new cutting-edge computer model that will serve as the operational backbone for current and future hurricane track and intensity forecasts by meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL.

HWRF, a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, will utilize highly advanced physics of the atmosphere, ocean and waves in one prediction system providing unparalleled understanding of the science of tropical cyclone evolution. Its output gives meteorologists an analysis of the hurricane in three-dimensions from real-time airborne Doppler radar. It will make use of a wide variety of observations from satellites, data buoys and hurricane hunter aircraft. No other hurricane model accesses this wide of a range of meteorological information.

“It is vital that we understand all the factors of hurricane forecasting throughout the life of a storm and HWRF will provide an unprecedented level of detail. Over the next several years, this model promises to improve forecasts for tropical cyclone intensity, wave and storm surge, and hurricane-related inland flooding,” said Mary Glackin, acting director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “It will be one of the most dynamic tools available for our forecasters.”

HWRF will eventually run at a very high resolution with advanced representation of a hurricane on many different scales of motion, which means it will be able to describe and forecast the smaller scale features of the hurricane circulation along with its interaction with the environment. This will provide forecasters with critical information on the evolution of the wind structure within the storm.

“We must continue to improve our modeling capabilities and, with HWRF, more accurate hurricane forecasts will help protect the lives of those prone to such storms,” added Louis Uccellini , director of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “HWRF will serve as a platform for future enhancements that will incorporate more advanced physics and advanced observations of both the atmosphere and ocean, not only through the large-scale global observations, but of the storm circulation.”

NOAA SATELLITES READY FOR ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON

With an active Atlantic hurricane season expected for 2007 (see HP, Summer 2007, page 20), NOAA’s high-powered satellites are ready to send forecasters a steady stream of crisp, detailed images, and other important data, of any storm that develops in the Western Hemisphere.
The NOAA Satellite and Information Service operates a fleet of spacecraft that monitor the weather, including conditions that trigger hurricanes and the tornadoes and floods that accompany them. “These satellites often provide us with the first indication that a storm is forming and they play an important role in predicting where a storm will go,” said Mary Kicza, assistant administrator for NESDIS.

NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), which operate from a fixed position 22,500 miles above the east and west coasts, take constant images of hurricanes and track their movement. Additionally, NOAA’s Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES), which operate 530 miles over the Earth, orbiting the entire planet, keep an eye on storms, while providing data—including sea-surface temperatures, which is incorporated into global weather models.

Satellite data is used in combination with hurricane buoys, hurricane hunter aircraft, air-borne Doppler radar, dropwindsondes and the experience and skill of NOAA’s forecasters to predict tropical storm impacts.

“Our satellites are in good health and are closely watching the oceans for any hint of tropical storm activity,” Kicza added. “Our top priority is to provide the satellite images and data to NOAA meteorologists, who make the forecasts that enable emergency managers to help people get out of harm’s way.”

NOAA Satellite Fleet
NOAA currently has four geostationary spacecraft: two are in operation, one is stored in orbit as a ready backup and one satellite currently used to provide better coverage of South America as part of the World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Watch Global Observing System. GOES are the nation’s primary hurricane spotters from space.

NOAA also has five polar-orbiting satellites—two that are operational, including a spacecraft in a joint venture with Europe, with three more serving as backup satellites. POES are key in monitoring changes in the atmosphere and ocean temperatures and climate phenomena, such as El Niño and La Niña.

“We have an elaborate system in place, including back-up satellites and partnerships with other nations, that would handle any hiccups and keep monitoring storms,” said Kathy Kelly, director of the NOAA Satellite Operations and Satellite Data Processing and Distribution.

Earlier this season NOAA officially dedicated a new home for its round-the-clock environmental satellite operations. The NOAA Satellite Operations Facility (NSOF), Suitland, MD, supports a range of high-technology equipment, including 16 antennas that control more than $4.7 billion worth of environmental satellites. Each day, NSOF processes more than 16 billion bytes of environmental data from NOAA’s satellites and the Department of Defense’s Meteorological Satellite Program.

NOAA Satellites Show Moxie
During the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, when a record 28 storms developed, NOAA satellites sent a total of 11,736 images of these cyclones to forecasters at the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL. In the relatively quiet 2006 hurricane season, the number of images was 7,380.

In New Orleans, LA, ground zero for Hurricane Katrina, the costliest hurricane in U.S. history, GOES sent 716 images of the storm between August 26 and August 30.

“During Katrina, nothing could have been more helpful to forecasters than [NOAA] GOES imagery,” said Paul Trotter, meteorologist in charge of the NOAA National Weather Service forecast office in Slidell, LA. “In areas where observations were limited, satellite imagery of the southwest movement of Katrina, once it began to move through and exit Florida, gave tremendous lead time of the eventual curve toward southeast Louisiana.”

Future NOAA Satellites
NOAA and NASA are planning the next generation of satellites that will strengthen the prediction and tracking of hurricanes. Known as the GOES-R series, these next-generation satellites are expected to bring key improvements in data for predicting severe weather, including hurricanes. GOES-R data will result in longer watch and warning lead times and a better definition of the threat area for hurricanes and other dangerous weather.

“Since the first GOES satellite began monitoring the weather in 1975, we have never stopped trying to make this system better,” Kicza said.
Also planned for the future is the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System, or NPOESS. This satellite system also will bring improved data and imagery for better weather forecasts, severe-weather monitoring and detection of climate change.